New Delhi: The race for a place in the World Cup semi-finals is hotting up, with all 10 sides still in contention for a top-four finish.Hosts India look almost certain to make the last four, while South Africa, New Zealand and Australia currently occupy the remaining qualification positions.
But the chasing pack, even holders England, know a late run of results could see them make it through instead.
The top seven will also qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy alongside hosts Pakistan, though eighth place will be enough if Pakistan seal a top-seven finish.
This what each team needs from their remaining games.
India
Current points: 12 Maximum points possible: 18
India will guarantee a semi-final place if they win one of their remaining three matches. Even three defeats is likely to be enough with an unlikely combination of results needed to see the hosts knocked out.
Verdict: Already have one foot in the last four and looking good to go the whole way. A banker.
South Africa
Current points: 10 Maximum points possible: 16
South Africa will guarantee a semi-final place with two wins from their final three matches. One win, or even none, may be enough depending on other results.Verdict: Would be a big surprise if they failed to make the knockout phase from here. Nearly there.
New Zealand
Current points: 8 Maximum points possible: 14
To be sure of a semi-final spot New Zealand need to win their remaining three group games. Two wins, or even one or none, may be enough depending on other results.
Verdict: A few nerves but things are still in their favour. Should make it.
Australia
Current points: 8 Maximum points possible: 14
Australia will need three wins from their remaining three group games to be guaranteed of a place in the final four. Two wins, or even one or none, may be enough depending on other results.
Verdict: The momentum is with them to reach the last four after overcoming a sticky start. Should progress.
Afghanistan
Current points: 6 Maximum points possible: 12
They will need to win at least one of their final three games as things stand to have a chance of progressing to the knockout stages, but realistically may need two or three wins, with Australia and New Zealand likely to pick up points.
Verdict: Have given themselves a chance with three big wins, but still a tough ask with games against Australia and South Africa to come.
Sri Lanka
Current points: 4 Maximum points possible: 10
To reach the semi-finals they need at least two wins from their final three games, but that requires Australia and New Zealand to lose their remaining matches and for Sri Lanka to improve their net run-rate.
Verdict: Defeat by Afghanistan has made it very tough. Highly unlikely.
Pakistan
Current points: 4 Maximum points possible: 10
Pakistan need at least two wins from their final three games, but that requires Australia and New Zealand to lose their remaining matches and them to improve their net run-rate.
Verdict: Would realistically need others to implode and a specific combination of results. Highly unlikely.
Netherlands
Current points: 4 Maximum points possible: 10
The associate nation need at least two wins from their remaining three matches, but that requires Australia and New Zealand to lose their remaining matches and to improve their net run-rate.
Verdict: Would need to pull off a few shock wins and a specific set of results elsewhere go in their favour. Highly unlikely.
Bangladesh
Current points: 2 Maximum points possible: 8
To reach the semi-finals they need three wins from their remaining three matches while significantly improving their net run-rate and hoping for a freakish set of results elsewhere.
Verdict: Chances practically over after losing to the Netherlands.
England
Current points: 2 Maximum points possible: 8
The World Cup holders need three wins from their remaining three matches while dramatically improving their run-rate and an extraordinary set of results elsewhere to reach the semi-finals.
Verdict: Barely a hope with in-form Australia to come in their next match. Praying for a miracle.
How is net run-rate (NRR) calculated?
Run-rate is the average number of runs scored per over by a team in their entire innings – so, for example, a score of 300 off 50 overs equals six runs per over.
Net run-rate is calculated by subtracting the opposition’s run-rate from the other team’s run-rate.
The winning side will therefore have a positive net run-rate, and the losers a negative net run-rate.
In a tournament, net run-rate is worked out by taking the average runs per over scored by that team in each game and subtracting the average runs per over scored against them in each game.
If a team is bowled out inside their allotted overs, their run-rate is calculated by dividing the runs by the maximum overs they could have batted – 50 overs in the case of this tournament. (via. BBC World)
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